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Topic: The December Series

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Praveen patil
Member
Posts: 304

I have been busy with my work related woes over the last few weeks & have been unable to contribute anything to these forums, although I did make occasional passing glances at these forums there was hardly any activity so nothing much to contribute (same was the case with YKs blog). So after a short sabattical here I am again posting my observations for the markets in the last month of the calendar year 2009.

 

It is now a well known fact that NIFTY is now rangebound between 4800 & 5200 with a possible over extension of about 100 points on either side. To decisively break out of the range NIFTY must break out beyond 5300 on a closing basis for at least 2 days on the upperside & below 4700 similarly on the lower side. This looks unlikely to happen in this series or for that matter in the next 2-3 months. There is still a lot of opportunity to make money in this rangebound market. Apart from trading on a realtime basis using technical tools one can also do some common sense gambling in these prevailing market conditions (especially for those like me who do not have much time to do RT trading these days).

 

One of my favourite strategies that has worked in the last couple of weeks is incremental betting on the limiting ranges of either side. One can take short positions @ 5100 & keep adding a lot at every 30-50 points (like say 5100, 5150, 5180-5200 etc). On the other hand one can take long positions @ 4850 & keep adding a lot at every 30-50 points. Similarly one can device stock specific strategies too. One word of caution though; when the markets decisively break out of this range one would be stuck in their own game so please do book profits as early as possible (even 30 odd points can do at times) & as always in these cases, use strict stop losses.

 

I am reasonably sure that 4750-4700 range is the absolute intermediate floor of NIFTY & unless there is a global meltdown of the Dubai kind (which is very much possible) markets will not go below this given the robust economic growth of India in particular & the world at large. Even in October when NIFTY had hit the 4500 range for a day, its EMA had never gone down significantly below 4750 levels which forms the horizontal upperline of the ascending triangle formed during June to September series & still acts as a significant refernce point in the weekly NIFTY charts.

 

If one ever gets to sub 4500 levels then one can simply start buying solid stocks just based on fundamentals & going blind on the technicals with a 3 months outlook. On the other hand 5200+ also looks stretched in the intermediate context because valuations would then be over-extended beyond the realm of any buyable opportunity whatsoever. One can then simply play the technical game in realtime or simply wait at the sidelines.

 

Hope to add more to this line of thought as the December series progresses. YK, Maxxy & Asahai what are your thoughts on the markets these days? BTW, YK I have managed to download your book but it has about 25 odd pages missing in the last couple of chapters which is otherwise in impeccable condition... Hope to mail it to you before evening today Although I haven't had the time to read it myself, will definitely read it once am done with my work.

--

Am a Bear in Bulls disguise

December 2, 2009 at 8:01 PM Flag Quote & Reply

Allo
Member
Posts: 270

Hi,

Its good to see the title. At least we are in business for one more month. I was away most of the time trying to settle down in Lucknow and fixing some household things. Like Praveen I came here once in a while. The activity was dull or nil.

Hope to see some more comments. My application to Canara Bank OLT is pending and I a off the market for another 15 days.

Thanks for the EOD upload.

December 2, 2009 at 9:38 PM Flag Quote & Reply

Yk
Member
Posts: 353

Hi Praveen


Nice to see u r back. Your analysis on mkts is good. Suddenly, activity has decreased in this GBC forum. All abstained for their different reasons.


I too am not trading too much. Simply am not able to concentrate much on markets these days for my own reasons.


One suggestion to all - there should be some space made so that during such time when GBC is not responding well - at least few EODs can be provided.


And dear i'm still looking for that book. Send me whenever u have time.


Cheers!

December 3, 2009 at 10:50 AM Flag Quote & Reply

Hemen
Site Owner
Posts: 426

I am sending all three of you my contact number so that you guys can contact me when you notice that something is really worng and needs my urgent attention in Getbhavcopy.


Check your private messages.

--

Thanks and Regards,
Hemen Kapadia

Quicklinks:

New Blog Post: Getbhavcopy version 2.1.0 released

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December 3, 2009 at 10:54 AM Flag Quote & Reply

Yk
Member
Posts: 353

Thanks Hemen ji


We will support this GBC tool & forum from every corner as and when required so that it goes on hassle free

 

Regards

December 3, 2009 at 11:03 AM Flag Quote & Reply

Anuj Mehta
Member
Posts: 30

for tech analysis.. u use close price or last price?

December 3, 2009 at 11:08 AM Flag Quote & Reply

Yk
Member
Posts: 353

Hi Anuj Mehta


It all depends - for what time frame TA is being done.

As for myself being a day trader - i like to see the close price as people look the same price (after mkt hrs) for making any trading decision next day.


CLOSE PRICE should be the preferred price.


December 3, 2009 at 11:44 AM Flag Quote & Reply

Praveen patil
Member
Posts: 304

Hemen Bhai, we would definitely try our best to act as a support group @ GBC forums

 

Dear YK, I just sent you that mail with the resource... Hope its of some use to you. As for markets what do u see? Is there a lot of weakness at these levels or those big fat men are again playing games? Just pretending to take a breather before hitting 5200 & going beyond with vengence? Look at market reactions, they are so classically muted when even a hugely positive news of almost 8% GDP growth in the previous quarter while the Dubai realty bankruptcy (which has very little Indian exposure) tanks our markets in a span of few hours.

--

Am a Bear in Bulls disguise

December 3, 2009 at 12:23 PM Flag Quote & Reply

Yk
Member
Posts: 353

Hi Praveen

In intraday charts Mkts. expected moves are crystal clear. However, those 'Big Fat Men' story should be exposed after 2-3 more session of trades (at least for 200-300). Mks. are mvoing more on global factors rather than local.


For any decisive downturn DII selling is required - which they are not doing. Some wants 5200+, some wants 5400levels whereas hidden agenda of govt. comes to 5800.


Various stocks chart are gaining the momentum for upswing(according to my setup) whereas Nifty seems to be neutral.


I'll update you with a special chart when its formation is complete.


What's your take btw?

December 6, 2009 at 11:02 AM Flag Quote & Reply

Yk
Member
Posts: 353

Hi PP / MAXX / ALLO


Where u ppl r?


What r u doing guys?



December 17, 2009 at 8:45 PM Flag Quote & Reply

maxx
Member
Posts: 183

hi yogesh,

as ive told u before, i was busy with my sisters marriage, nd have become free only now.

in adition i may also have become lazy!

anyway buddy, the only way to keep this forum alive is either u or pravin, one of the guys should be posting on the regular basis, if its not for that, then well we r staring at a not so happy ending i fear !!!


regards

--


December 19, 2009 at 1:43 PM Flag Quote & Reply

maxx
Member
Posts: 183

again i would be dvelving in that system provided by u nd then maybe i too will be able to see the things as u see. till then its about macroeconomic views for me nd other broadmarket stuff.

--


December 19, 2009 at 1:49 PM Flag Quote & Reply

Yk
Member
Posts: 353

Hi Mayank


Hope (and wish) that every thing settled well in the merriage.Join this mkt only when you are confident enough. Otherwise it can happily wash away you in a fraction of day. Have you seen the intraday volatility in the mkt these days? One should be careful.


For ALLO  - I think he is doing well with his new trading A/c.


And perhaps Praveen is busy with his boss.


Myself being a foolish person in non-trading affairs - have become out from the mkt. However will be back for some time.


Regards

December 20, 2009 at 8:53 AM Flag Quote & Reply

maxx
Member
Posts: 183

sure buddy, ive been washed already, nd now when i want to reenter, im having fear !!! u wonder sometimes how life changes!

nd what is this being out of markets ???

i mean do u feel something fishy going out there so u waiting on the sidelines till its all over??? or ur out cause of something else??


regards

--


December 20, 2009 at 12:15 PM Flag Quote & Reply

maxx
Member
Posts: 183

praveen - yogesh,

how nd where did u find the book?

just asking it to improve my knowledge so that future searches r better!

--


December 20, 2009 at 12:18 PM Flag Quote & Reply

Yk
Member
Posts: 353

Dear


There is no cure for this demon - Fear. The cure lies itself in the subject. Few winning trades - and you will again start to roar.


I would suggest to initially go with very-very (trivial) small quantily - and not to earn - just to check your combination of confidence/study and of course luck factor.

Just start with (yes) 10 or 20 shares of Rs.80 to Rs.230 range. and see what happens. How do you feel nerves Vs your confidence?  And take some logical SL.


And i'm sure you will ultimately start to win.


December 20, 2009 at 1:31 PM Flag Quote & Reply

maxx
Member
Posts: 183

thnx for the words buddy.

first ive to open an account , though i do have a couple but i dont have anything about those

but i will start with nifty, lets see how long it all takes.

--


December 21, 2009 at 5:31 AM Flag Quote & Reply

Anjan
Member
Posts: 1

Hi guys!

 I am a techncal analyst who studies the Elliot wave formation. What I see in the Nifty is that it has started its Y wave within which there will be A,B,C corrective waves. C has just started and it would take the Nifty down to 4100-4200 level. Then we may see a reboundwhich will be 5th of 3rd wave then another correction and finally it would touch 7000 mark may be at the middle or end of 2010. After that there will be another major crash!! Enjoy!!

Anjan

December 21, 2009 at 8:16 AM Flag Quote & Reply

maxx
Member
Posts: 183

hi anjan,

welcome to the forum buddy.

7000

u seem to be one heck of a bull man!!


regards

--


December 21, 2009 at 8:35 AM Flag Quote & Reply

Yk
Member
Posts: 353

maxx at 12:18PM on Dec 20, 2009

praveen - yogesh,

how nd where did u find the book?

just asking it to improve my knowledge so that future searches r better!

Dear Mayank

Praveen did what i did not dare to.

He copied/downloaded pages(one by one) from google book source.


Thanks again to Praveen for that.

December 21, 2009 at 11:21 AM Flag Quote & Reply

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