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People might feel that I have been crying wolf for the last 2-3 weeks in saying that a correction is imminent while NIFTY moves upwards nonchalantly as if it simply doesn't care for my feelings  ... But then what can I do, I only post what I see in my charts

NIFTY, ever since it broke out of that ascending triangle has moved on more than 7% defying all odds & the one big bluechip that has outperformed NIFTY is SBIN. Now the whole banking sector is seeing all time highs despite many concerns on the interest rate front. If you add the debt & bond market concerns to it, you will realize why this rise is simply gravity defying & unrealistic in equal measures. We are again in the midst of earnings result season & am sure many bulls must be shivering in their pants. The fact is that markets have already discounted great expectations of growth from most scrips in terms of price moments for not only this fiscal but also for FY 11. Now, even a slight underperformance or bad news can create huge selling pressures, which is indicative of a market top. Just take the example of MARUTI, which actually came up with decent sales for this month & yet the stock got hammered (which in any other normal time should have seen at least a 3% immideate rally for the scrip). In the last truncated week NIFTY broke 2 important resistances of 5030 & 5060 almost effortlessly, albeit with very low volumes and mind you the global cues were not all that positive throughout the week. This week it remains to be seen how NIFTY behaves with another important supply zone of 5080 to 5100. In all this madness FIIs were the major investors, which again proves that abundant liquidity does not always produce smart decisions even if we have just managed to come out of a big bubble very recently with unprecedented economic recession in almost a century. US has to adress its fiscal deficit burden sooner rather than later if it wants to avoid another bubble, in any case inflationary pressures will push the US treasury to stop printing more paper & liquidty will dry out soon; then we shall have more saner market conditions.Some important sectors that should see a correction this week are IT, Banking, Realty & Power ... So, I would not touch any of the stocks in these sectors till there is a correction. Most of these corrections will also depend a lot on the quarterly results which in turn will have a significant bearing on the indices themselves.

Technically, NIFTY is again under pressure this week. First of all there is definite volume divergence seen this week, which is a definitive indicator of market weekness. RSI & Stochastics are in overbrought conditions indicating that profit booking is imminent. MACD is bullish but falling towards its signal line. For candlestick enthusiasts, there is evening doji star formation (along with a spinning top) which is another strong indicator of a market top. Elliot waves, as I have already illustrated in these forums are showing significant signs of a sell off & this week there is that added possibilty of point 4 of a wolf wave which forms an expanding triangle which trades from the next point & is indicative of a price move in the opposite direction towards the target line. The only possible exception to all of this is the positive GANN swing (pullback) which can still give the Bulls something positive to move NIFTY upwards on the first trading session of the week (with or without support from global cues). From there on I expect NIFTY to correct at least 6% to 8%.

Despite all these factors, I do not suggest that anybody should short NIFTY because these days anything is possible & as my friend YK has pointed out: "expect the unexpected" these days. I for one do not expect NIFTY to touch 5200 this month (or the next month for that matter) despite what many analysts are pointing at. I would be a worried man if NIFTY crosses beyond 5150 in the short term because then the fall would be even mightier & all the gains that the markets have accrued since May (if not March) 2009 could be wiped out when the inevitable market tanking occurs. Again I will stress that it is important for the health of the markets that NIFTY does not cross significantly below 4750 levels (the upper line of the ascending triangle) & for that a 6% to 8% correction from the current levels is a must.

Support & Resistance theory:

NIFTY has many significant resistances between 5080 & 5100 and should find it difficult to cross this supply zone. 5120 is another important resistance, which when crossed could take NIFTY to 5200 levels. One of my friends in a brokerage firm has suggested that there will be no significant correction till at least 5400 levels. There is a theory that many investors (retail & otherwise) are sitting on the sidelines with a lot of liquidity waiting for an elusive market correction which accounts for such low participation. They are getting desperate with every new high on the indices and 5200 is that psychological level when they might start participating in the NIFTY rally & with new liquidity entering market they can take it to new highs of around 5400 levels by which time all the FIIs & big fat men would have exited the market paving the way for a big fall. As usual, I take such conspiracy theories with a pinch of salt. Anyways, on the lower side 4944 is an important support level & 4900 is a psychological level that needs to be breached if the markets are to touch 4800 levels. Recent NIFTY action suggests that realistically it should trade in the range between 4944 & 5120. Any of these levels need to be breached in order to take a call on NIFTY.

Since NIFTY is not tradable till either the support or the resistance level is breached, we are left with individual stocks to trade. I will post my take on some of the scrips as soon as am finished reading them

Phew! that was one helluva long post!!! Will any one even read it without getting bored?!!!

Blame it on Gandhi Jayanti & the boredom of having nothing to do on the long weekend, what with my wife having placed a ban on my weekend indulgence with a couple of pegs of whisky Plus, I just had Chocolate fantasy with double scoops of ice cream which I love (in Coffee day) and I usually get into this writing mood after eating that.

Dear Praveen

I'll award you 20 out of 10 points for your writings (10 from my own side ) as you have described what -by the way- i was also thinking especially in your counter-view para. 

However, Monday trading will clear the expected moves of Nifty this week to some extent.

I must say - our Nifty is lucky - we remain closed on the day of Correction in world mkt. Let us see how long Nifty is able to do so.

However, your suggestions on real time data issue are informative.  And also liked the idea of working while forming a group.Let us see how others respond.

Since morning was fighting with my Monitor (which refused to display proper colors)  and DVD Drive (refusing to write DVD). Now they are ok.Tomorrow i have to format my HDD as i have become irritated with lots of  unwanted data & programs on it. (This is what i decided in this long weekend). After that only i will check what is in store for us in the mkt.

Cheers!

correction- if ur referring to weekly nifty chart,a sort of doji appeared last week, but has been negated by this weeks bullish candle, which by the way i dont think can be called a spinning top.

if it is daily, then yes, a doji does appear, but is not a star. quoting steve nisan-

"A star is a small real body that gaps away from the large real body preceding it. It is still a star as long as the star's real body doesnot overlap the prior real body"

well, we do have an overlap of 0.5 points. it is significant, cause there is almost no gap, just 4 points.

 further an evening or morning star formation consists of 3 candles. if next candle is bearish candle, then the formation is completed

YK Praveen Maxx

I am trying to find the name change in Jindal Strips Ltd. They changed it to Nalwasons and then split the shares into group companies. My wife held some shares in Jindal Strips and over the years I do not know what is actually held. The shares are still in certificate form and recently we received bonus shares of Jindal ST and Power. Could you guys please track the name change and split history for Jindal Strips?

Dear Allo,

u must give on what date ur certificate was issued and what is the name of the company on it.

then using a combination of search on nse and registrar site, i think u can find the current holdings !

but if u send all of ur physical shares for conversion in demat form, wont the registrar himself credit ur account with all the spilts and bonuses !

To Pravin,

Printing of money in US is not necessarily going to resultin hyper-inflation. Presenting a counter view.

What we are witnessing in the us is destruction of value dueto defaults by banks and financial institutions + continuing fall in asset prices.

Lets say it this way- say right now u own a house worth Rs50 lacs and bonds and FDs worth Rs 40 lacs. If the value of house comes down to30 lacs and 20 lac worth of FDs just default !!! then would u feel and spendthe same way which u r currently ?? i remember watching program on tv somemonths back when a person aged 70 had to work cause most of his worth simplyvanished !!

In essence what im saying is – there is lot of valuedestruction happening in US, nd despite the us govt printing money and throwingit at a hectic pace, it is still not enough to fill the hole generated. And thismay result in Deflation!!!

What explains the liquidity deluge  u’ll ask ! in us if u buy a house, u get $3000 grant, to swap ur automobile with less fuel hungry ones $2000, nd so on. Thegovt is actually throwing $$$ to save as many bonds from defaulting nd to keepthe blood flow i.e. $$$ in the economy. And as it happens, some of it isfinding other avenues like stock market. By some estimates us has spend $4trillion worth already !! nd have commited $40 trillon worth. Don’t know werewill they find money to fund if majority of this defaults.

If a real economic recovery were bad assets don’t go bad innear future happens, we r staring at something. Not only will this money dryout, but will be sucked back home into that black hole.

Now ur looking at some bear market !!!!! but that may besome time away till then, the markets may be awashed with $$$$$$ !!!!

Ok YK, aapke 10.80 points mere pe udhaar (0.80 service tax)

Dear Maxx, I am just a small time trader, with little knowledge. As they say, half knowledge is more dangerous than no knowledge. If you see my previous posts you will realize that all my predictions are wrong, but I still post something on the forums as I feel I should share my limited knowhow with others. My candlestick chart reading capability is nothing compared to yours, so please forgive my Doji star reading on the daily chart for I should first wait for 2 more candles to post my findings ... I find patterns where there are none ... My trendline reading is even more defecient, I probably should learn how to draw trendlines because I do not give importance to retracements.

US is printing a lot of currency & that is creating artificial deflation coupled with fiscal deficit which in turn would cause inflationary pressures very soon. The market is awash with liquidity & that liquidity is not being used in what one can term as "smart" investment. This may or may not be a real economic recovery, but there has been technical recovery & let us see how that copes once the easy liquidity is not available (which is essentially what you say in terms of home buying or automobile buying capability of ordinary Americans) ... I hope at least here we are both talking in the same vein, if we are not then please forgive my little knowledge & plz do rectify my ideas

As promised, here are a few of my stock picks even before our markets have been influenced by any global cues or by Asian markets.. Take them with a pinch of salt and tread cautiously on the path that am taking.. These are just my views with whatever little knowledge that I have & my technical knowhow aint as good as other people in these forums, so take these trends as just a general directional indicators and not as actual buy or sell signals

BHARTIAIRTL >>> Bullish MACD crossover, Stochastic buy signal, P&F chart shows bullish pattern, candlestick = rising window, Rising RSI, Elliot waves are also showing bullish patterns .... Resistance @460 ... NT target 485, can go upto 520 ... SL 390.

ANSALINFRA >>> Prices brokeout above ascending triangle on huge volumes... Bullish MACD crossover ... Overbrought stochastics & RSI touching 70 but still rising... P&F charts showing bullish buy signal ... Resistance @ 92... can go upto 100 ... Maintain a strict SL of 79.

INFOSYS >>> is looking week on charts & will face stiff resistance, there is a lot of volume divergence ... Immideate target is 2250 but can go below 2000 depending on the quarter results.

ROLTA >>>This is a difficult counter so one should not trade if one is risk averse (plus IT stocks will be under pressure soon)... Technically : seems to have broken out of the trading range on big volumes, bullish MACD crossover, Rising RSI, P&F chart shows bullish triangle formation, Immideate resistance is at 192-193, if crossed prices can go beyond 200... SL should ideally be @ 175, but one can place it higher to reduce risks.

other stocks to watch out for: AMBUJACEM (uptrend?), BHARATFORGE (downward pressure?) RANBAXY SL @ 377,

Praveen patil at 01:06PM on Oct 02, 2009

Phew! that was one helluva long post!!! Will any one even read it without getting bored?!!!

 

Blame it on Gandhi Jayanti & the boredom of having nothing to do on the long weekend, what with my wife having placed a ban on my weekend indulgence with a couple of pegs of whisky Plus, I just had Chocolate fantasy with double scoops of ice cream which I love (in Coffee day) and I usually get into this writing mood after eating that.

I am reading this post before the long one as so many good things caught my eyes. Whiskey, Ice Cream and chocolates!!!

....

Praveen patil at 02:15PM on Oct 04, 2009

Ok YK, aapke 10.80 points mere pe udhaar (0.80 service tax)

 

Dear Maxx, I am just a small time trader, with little knowledge. As they say, half knowledge is more dangerous than no knowledge. If you see my previous posts you will realize that all my predictions are wrong, but I still post something on the forums as I feel I should share my limited knowhow with others. My candlestick chart reading capability is nothing compared to yours, so please forgive my Doji star reading on the daily chart for I should first wait for 2 more candles to post my findings ... I find patterns where there are none ... My trendline reading is even more defecient, I probably should learn how to draw trendlines because I do not give importance to retracements.

 

US is printing a lot of currency & that is creating artificial deflation coupled with fiscal deficit which in turn would cause inflationary pressures very soon. The market is awash with liquidity & that liquidity is not being used in what one can term as "smart" investment. This may or may not be a real economic recovery, but there has been technical recovery & let us see how that copes once the easy liquidity is not available (which is essentially what you say in terms of home buying or automobile buying capability of ordinary Americans) ... I hope at least here we are both talking in the same vein, if we are not then please forgive my little knowledge & plz do rectify my ideas

What exactly is  technical recovery and how is it different from the real recovery? Someone on yahoo finance raised the question if there is recovery(real or technical) why is it that Fed is still providing money at near zero rates?  The american companies have access to very cheap funds. What happens when China stops buying into US treasury?

Printing money  causes inflation. So does near zero interest rates which discourage people to save. Or does it not? I didnt like Macroeco anyway.

Just thinking what would it be like having a near zero interest rate in India? I shall borrow heavily to buy a big house.

Allo at 06:19AM on Oct 04, 2009

YK Praveen Maxx

I am trying to find the name change in Jindal Strips Ltd. They changed it to Nalwasons and then split the shares into group companies. My wife held some shares in Jindal Strips and over the years I do not know what is actually held. The shares are still in certificate form and recently we received bonus shares of Jindal ST and Power. Could you guys please track the name change and split history for Jindal Strips?

Dear Asahai

Pl see these links if at all it can be of any use :

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071204025117AAQsCXp

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071128051702AAygBPv

If it does not solve the question, it's better to ask broker. They have better records/links of informations.

Be Ultra Alert!

What i see in data/charts that Nifty 5000 onwards - trading traders has become more important than scripts themselves.Now very few TA/FA followers are remaining and looking for buying opportunities.(i’m not considering penny stocks). Everyone (trader/investor) is ready to book100% profit from their recent investments even at the slightest of fall.  

Recently several TA followers(who did not listen to the vibes of mkt) have burnt their fingers in shorts.That’s why aggressive shorts too are not present (A good indicator of correction ).

Big people are in dilemma. To whom to sell? DIIs not ready. LIC too not ready. Some others are also waiting. They are fighting among themselves on the question – how/when to exit? Whom to dump upon? (We as kids before them should not look more than hit & run type of trading opportunities at these levels).

Yes, Dow has closed with a bit of bearish note. Certain mark on Dow has been breached. We have to see – if Dow is able to close above its current closing or not on Monday. If not so and it close below the mark 9361 or so (for more than 1 days) then we should consider 9748.55 as its top for the time being.

For Monday(05-10-2009) most of the scripts are poised for up-move (in my chart).  With this we also can not forget two recent corrections in world mkt.

The bearish factors for Monday are Asian cues, INR Vs USD ratio and recent corrections in world mkt. With ref.to INR/USD ratio we are again around a point where most of the corrections have occurred in our mkt recently. However, our Nifty has the potential to bounce back if it falls provided any of the factors is supportive.

Since, we are going to open after a long weekend, it is not wise to take position in mkt based on TA for Monday. Let THEM wipe off the dust from the mkt. first then i will take my own course.

MARKET UNDERCURRENTS (READ BIG PEOPLE WITH BIG MONEY) ARE BULLISH WITH BEARISH SENTIMENTS (of kids). – END RESULT? EAT SL OF SHORTERS.  BE CAREFUL!

CLUE TO THIS MKT MOVE IS MONEY SUPPLY. JUST GUESS WHEN IT IS GOING TO BE STOPPED.

For technical nos. on Nifty Praveen has already described.

Playing Nifty on Monday (to me)is more sensible than any scrip.

Cheers!

Allo at 03:12PM on Oct 04, 2009

Praveen patil at 02:15PM on Oct 04, 2009

Ok YK, aapke 10.80 points mere pe udhaar (0.80 service tax)

 

Dear Maxx, I am just a small time trader, with little knowledge. As they say, half knowledge is more dangerous than no knowledge. If you see my previous posts you will realize that all my predictions are wrong, but I still post something on the forums as I feel I should share my limited knowhow with others. My candlestick chart reading capability is nothing compared to yours, so please forgive my Doji star reading on the daily chart for I should first wait for 2 more candles to post my findings ... I find patterns where there are none ... My trendline reading is even more defecient, I probably should learn how to draw trendlines because I do not give importance to retracements.

 

US is printing a lot of currency & that is creating artificial deflation coupled with fiscal deficit which in turn would cause inflationary pressures very soon. The market is awash with liquidity & that liquidity is not being used in what one can term as "smart" investment. This may or may not be a real economic recovery, but there has been technical recovery & let us see how that copes once the easy liquidity is not available (which is essentially what you say in terms of home buying or automobile buying capability of ordinary Americans) ... I hope at least here we are both talking in the same vein, if we are not then please forgive my little knowledge & plz do rectify my ideas

What exactly is  technical recovery and how is it different from the real recovery? Someone on yahoo finance raised the question if there is recovery(real or technical) why is it that Fed is still providing money at near zero rates?  The american companies have access to very cheap funds. What happens when China stops buying into US treasury?

Printing money  causes inflation. So does near zero interest rates which discourage people to save. Or does it not? I didnt like Macroeco anyway.

Just thinking what would it be like having a near zero interest rate in India? I shall borrow heavily to buy a big house.

China won't stop buying US treasury. They have their own ego problem. And this time - they have taken this opportunity as advancement in the course of becomeing super power. US economists/authorities are not that fool. They know what China are doing and can do and how to stop them.

Think about it - Despite (China)having huge population, their economy is largely based on exports to (mostly) European countries & US. ( Now - how to destroy it? )

Yes, if surgical hands are not applied now by US officials to current situation  - another big crisis is brewing up.

Money printed by FED are not supposed to be invested in stock mkt. It's just to wipe off banks' sick balance sheets.

But bankers are utilizing money for other purpose. Loans are available at such interest rates but not to general public and needy. It’s only available to privileged class.  

Allo at 03:12PM on Oct 04, 2009

Praveen patil at 02:15PM on Oct 04, 2009

Ok YK, aapke 10.80 points mere pe udhaar (0.80 service tax)

 

Dear Maxx, I am just a small time trader, with little knowledge. As they say, half knowledge is more dangerous than no knowledge. If you see my previous posts you will realize that all my predictions are wrong, but I still post something on the forums as I feel I should share my limited knowhow with others. My candlestick chart reading capability is nothing compared to yours, so please forgive my Doji star reading on the daily chart for I should first wait for 2 more candles to post my findings ... I find patterns where there are none ... My trendline reading is even more defecient, I probably should learn how to draw trendlines because I do not give importance to retracements.

 

US is printing a lot of currency & that is creating artificial deflation coupled with fiscal deficit which in turn would cause inflationary pressures very soon. The market is awash with liquidity & that liquidity is not being used in what one can term as "smart" investment. This may or may not be a real economic recovery, but there has been technical recovery & let us see how that copes once the easy liquidity is not available (which is essentially what you say in terms of home buying or automobile buying capability of ordinary Americans) ... I hope at least here we are both talking in the same vein, if we are not then please forgive my little knowledge & plz do rectify my ideas

What exactly is  technical recovery and how is it different from the real recovery? Someone on yahoo finance raised the question if there is recovery(real or technical) why is it that Fed is still providing money at near zero rates?  The american companies have access to very cheap funds. What happens when China stops buying into US treasury?

Printing money  causes inflation. So does near zero interest rates which discourage people to save. Or does it not? I didnt like Macroeco anyway.

Just thinking what would it be like having a near zero interest rate in India? I shall borrow heavily to buy a big house.

u can equate a technical recovery to a dead cat bounce.

the us has to finance its huge deficits, just printing banknotes is not going to be enough. so if china or similar countries stop buying us paper, then us wont have money to splurge or spend. that in turn will mean no imports to the us!!! so china will keep buying us paper.

about the inflation bit- guys u didnt read my post. i will say again, in present scenario, printing money will not cause inflation- but more likely deflation. in the us people anyway are so indebted that even absolute zero rates are not going to change much. in india-  yes as u said, there is lot more scope to borrow, cause we r not that leveraged.

to pravin,

i dont want a "who is the humbler of them all" kind of comepetion, but man i just pointed out some mistakes and presented a counterview. its not that i belong to a different breed of 'gyani manav'.

regards

Lol @ gyani manav ... It was not a competition 4 humility, but just the way one posts in these forums in terms of tonality (thank God we have at least moved on from "ji") ... As for counter views, they are always good

Lets keep the macro-economic discussions aside for now & concentrate on our wily NIFTY. It has opened in the red without much global cues ... Is this that elusive correction that we have been talking about? Its more likely that this is just a dip from where the markets might bounce back as YK has pointed out. But what is intresting is that NIFTY is consitently trading below the technical support level of 4944 ... SENSEX is also below 17000 ... ROLTA as usual has gone against the trend & has almost gained 2% in the first 30 minutes of trade... There is pressure on bulls this week, lets see how they come out of it.

5044 ... correction in above post ... 80 odd point correction for da day... Dunno what happend to BHARTIAIRTL though ... looks attractive to me now, have to catch the data today 2 see

Bharti looks attractive below 400 anyday. Now today was a red day. Are we going to see more reds this week? 80 points could be gained tomorrow as easily as it was lost today. The way market is behaving is anybody's guess.

Gyani manavs!!! thats good one.Markets will test our collective gyan. I prefer to dig here and there for whatever bits of info is available. Sometimes reading charts is too much of a chore. 

In the meantime I shall however dream of the lowest interest rates and the big free loan for me.

Yk at 03:53PM on Oct 04, 2009

Allo at 06:19AM on Oct 04, 2009

YK Praveen Maxx

I am trying to find the name change in Jindal Strips Ltd. They changed it to Nalwasons and then split the shares into group companies. My wife held some shares in Jindal Strips and over the years I do not know what is actually held. The shares are still in certificate form and recently we received bonus shares of Jindal ST and Power. Could you guys please track the name change and split history for Jindal Strips?

Dear Asahai

Pl see these links if at all it can be of any use :

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071204025117AAQsCXp

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20071128051702AAygBPv

If it does not solve the question, it's better to ask broker. They have better records/links of informations.

Thanks YK,

This was why I posted here. Jindals have always done some convoluted merging de-merging.

I still have 300 JIndal Photo where they sent me the wrong certificate and upon protesting they asked me to surrender the wrong certificate. This time I have to sort it out with their registrars and demat it.

Thanks again.