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I don't know which way the markets are headed, but surely there are enough signs of weakness & as I have been pointing out last week, most indicators & oscillators are in over brought territory. I tried to apply my newly aquired Elliot wave indicators on MS NIFTY chart & found similar results. As I understand it, NIFTY is probably continuing in the 3rd phase; wave-e of the third wave; & there has to be selling from this level. If NIFTY does close above the psychological level of 5000, then 5020 could be an immideate resistance level.

Am holding on to my NIFTY short positions despite many advices & suggestions to the contrary. Lets see what happens in the next 3 days

My SELL (short) signals for these 3 days;

SBIN >>> with a NT target of 2020 (& a strict stop loss of 2190) .... This is almost the first time I have ever suggested shorting SBIN in these forums ... Am always emotional about SBI

DLF >>> is again showing bearish patterns ... Target = 390 ... SL= 450

TATAMOTORS >>> Methinks, it has finally topped off, if it goes below 582 then it has the potential to go all the way down to 500 in the NT ... As always one has to maintain strict Stop Loss on this counter.

My BUY (long) signals

ANSALINFRA >>> Although not a NIFTY stock, it is showing some good signs

Cement pack may perform better this week ... So Am again picking AMBUJACEM >>> 97 should be perfect buying opportunity on this counter

ACC also is showing good bullish signs

my chart reading is defenitely weaker than urs, but my elementry knowledge says SBIN & DLF both to be buys !

Praveens eliot wave indicators are on test now. US markets dipped slightly and our markets might stay lower tomorrow. expiry and rate decisions are also there. fomc always generates too muxh excitement even if the result is on expected lines. keeping my fingers crossed. if oil shares tank tomorrow my puts will get green. three days only.

SBIN and DLF are not yet ripe for shorting. I agree more with MAXX.

For me DLF might touc 445 tomorrow.

Oh!

Again gettings against the expected trend signals (for going longs) on :

SESAGOA, RESURGERE,FEDERALBN, LUPIN, CORPBANK, ANDHRABAN, APOLLOTYR ,INDUSINDB.

With this i can not forget that this is the expiry week of Sept. That's why less trading for me on scrips and more on Nifty.

Do not follow my List.

I may or may not take my positions depending on the moves/mood of mkt today.

Caution Caution Caution ............................

22-09-2009 @ 2.30pm

Bears are loosing their dress  @ 5025.

If we remain above 5030 they will run to save their under-garments too effecting Nifty to 5050+ today.

Although Game is slightly tilted toward bears, we have to be careful. I am now out from my Nifty longs apart from my other selected scripts with gains to watch the game now.

Only FEDERALBN Flat & APOLLOTYR took SL.

ANDHRABAN & RESURGERE - real Intraday Thriller 

Allo at 05:36PM on Sep 21, 2009

Praveens eliot wave indicators are on test now. US markets dipped slightly and our markets might stay lower tomorrow. expiry and rate decisions are also there. fomc always generates too muxh excitement even if the result is on expected lines. keeping my fingers crossed. if oil shares tank tomorrow my puts will get green. three days only.

SBIN and DLF are not yet ripe for shorting. I agree more with MAXX.

For me DLF might touc 445 tomorrow.

eliott waves are always subjective. only problem with them is u dont when one wave will terminate, or has it terminated ?? a wave can simply keep on extending.

praveen will enlighten us more on this aspect.

Exactly my view. I read about elliot waves long ago but dropped when the complex waves unfolded on real life charts. But there are people who swear by elliot waves so maybe it works. The wave techs probably see them even in messy charts.I once read about wave four (or was it three) identification for market turnarounds. It was arcane science and I dropped it. I sometimes read Vivek Patil's wave commentary on icicidirect.

I agree that NIFTY seems to be in a hurry to go beyond everybodys expectations & cross every milestone without pausing!... I was analysing over the weekend about money flow into the Indian markets & some of the most surprising aspects were showing up. At the outset, everything appears hunky dory since FII's have invested about 1 billion dollars in Indian markets in september alone!... Delve deeper & you will see that most of it is not what one would call "smart money" at least not in the real sense. Thus my sense is that markets will tank sooner rather than later. As for elliot waves & their applicability to real life charts, I am as much of a novice as u, but I would like to add that elliot wave or anything else is not on in its own way a complete trading system. When used in combination they should give results consistently. For example, look at NIFTY chart & you will see half a dozen indicators showing bearish (or sell off) signals; RSI, Stochastics, volume divergence etc etc. When one combines these with the Elliot wave theories one gets a pattern of imminent sell off. Yet NIFTY is simply climbing up & we can hear on these so called business tv channels, the talk of 5400 & even 6000!...

May be Iam wrong completely, may be I have to take a re-look @ my analytical skills & change my way of thinking thoroughly to understand what is happening in the markets these days. But as little as i know of technical analysis, Iam convinced that this rally is not sustainable & there will be a big correction very soon. There is a caution though, since these are low volume days, there are people who want to ensure that markets do not tank at least till the september series comes to an end, so that they don't lose their money in a big way.

Thus I might lose quite a bit on my NIFTY shorts this month, but stay assured Iam going to come back & short NIFTY again!!!

Here is the NIFTY chart as i see it, in terms of ELLIOT wave, MACD, RSI & Stochastics

Hope u guys can correct me if Iam wrong in any way

Dear Praveen

As i say – when THEY start everything (FA & TA) stops. OR it takes nothing (other than money) to defy every logic behind FA & TA. 

It’s better to short mkt. when THEY start doing so.Initially, we should not get trapped by DII’s selling/short-selling. They have failed in past and could fail further in doing so. THEY ARE LAZY.

People are eager to have a correction. Seems they have lost hope while waiting for it. And they now have a feeling of being left out. And also picture seems to be rosy. That’s why upon even a smallest of fall another set of money is pumped-up.

We won’t have any meaningful correction (as i think) till until people start participating in mkt on regular basis. OR we encounter any unexpected news marring current sentiments of the mkt. Of course, this last leg(probably) of the wave ( as shown in ur chart) is going to be a bumpy ride.

First, we should wait for the reason of correction, and then take any move.

Let technicals talk what they want to. I accept that technicals have reached at warning level but decision can not be made solely on their signals. There are other factors which tell technicals to say something and let things happen another thing.

So, Why to be stubborn? Why not to be swift? Why not to wait and start seeing things happening? Why to try to catch 100% of move? And why not to be complacent with some % (a confirmed one) of the move?

After all, we don’t get paid for seeing technicals. We get paid for timely & correct execution. 

Having said these all, i do not see any flaw in your technical interpretation in the chart above. Only one thing is missing –perfect timing & execution of the trade which i’m sure you will do. As, i think this time you will tread cautiously in short game.

By the way look at this. Seems good analysis on up-coming inflationary hype.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/9/21/2009/index/a/24581

However, i think as global mkts progress, number of such types of analysis will come up in the support of mkts up move.

Regards.

Praveen your chartes have clearly arked waves and even I can see it coming for a drop. Everyone is now cautioning about the rally having gone too far to fast. Strangely they do not want to be quoted later as wrong so they are saying the rally may continue further. This reminds me of the pure economist talk. Yesterday I spent sometime browsing though yahoo finance postings and there were some unblievable posts and even more unbelievable comments on the posts. One person went on to quote his sources in a top bank, CIA and Fed and it was mostly hoax. Scary stuff though.

Maybe Nifty will start cooling off only after 24th. 

YK has made a good point of waiting and catching the move once in place. The returns are lowered but the risk is lowered too.

IDEA is set for a break on upside. BEL is likely to continue the upthrust tomorrow.

Today too i have a long list but resisting myself from trading and rather will concentrate on Nifty due to expiry factor.

What's your take friends on JPHYDRO ?  I'm looking for swings(long) in it

Happy trading.

Guess we are in for another green day, because global cues are not all that bad. LOL there go my NIFTY shorts

I agree that it is all about timing & now I know for sure that there is no chance of making good my shorts, so I will look for an exit window today and salvage whatever little I can. Thank u YK for your suggestions, I know I should have listened to you earlier. You win some u lose some, can't complain now can i?

Asahai, was looking at IDEA charts, it is showing some bullish signs (GANN swing etc) ... But am still not all that comfortable with it, may be it is a good buy @ 76

I want to watch SBIN closely today & tomorrow if it goes beyond 2200, then I dont know what is its peak ... The SL that I have maintained is 2190... Its so typical how both NIFTY & SBIN, after breaking out of the their respective triangles have moved so sharply.

Hope at least POWERGRID breaksout in a big way today to make up for some of my losses

Dear Praveen

Ref. POWERGRID.

I'm happy today. At least what i suggested - is out with good result today.

Trail SL. Keep faith in TA. I have written against (to some extent) it  but that does not mean it is worthless.

Finally we got the breakout today.

Cheers!

Praveen NIFTY has finally moved for you.

praveenji you are guru aadmi when the whole world was saying on cnbc tv and etnow that markets will go to 5200 you stuck to your guns and markets have fall

wish i could read markets like you

yesterday u said sbi and dlf would fall and they are falling today also last week petron shares went up by 20 percent in 1 day

how should one make such predictions? specially when every1 is saying markets will rise am not good at using metastock am new to trading

also sombodsy tell me that if iam trading in nse futures then should i be seeing nifty futures chart or nifty charts will do? but because getbhavcopy is not downloading nifty futures data where should i get it from?

i regularly follow you peoples analysis but am not good like you guys and that is why i dont comment

Dear Asahai & YK thank u for all your support...NIFTY has finally moved for some correction ... Although, for the general health of the market this might be too little too late, but on a personal note this has been a very satisfying day for me after quite some time. POWERGRID finally made its minor move & I booked profits on it, although it can move some more tomorrow, but I don't wanna take that risk anymore

I have offloaded 2 lots of NIFTY and am left with 3 more, if it loses another 50 odd points I would be home

SBIN has again proved to be a friend who never betrays ... Am just sooo emotional about this scrip (someday am gonna lose a big load on it)

Gowri, I would suggest you use futures data to trade in futures becoz after all what you are doing is not arbitrage, is it?... Although underlying script (NIFTY, in ur case) data can also provide you enough ammunition... & WTF is "guru admi" n awl plzzzz. As for your suggestion that my predictions are any better than others, that is a myth... truth be told, I had many self doubts creeping up after yesterdays session & as YK always says, there is more to trading than just TA or FA & am not good at looking those signals

On a more serious note, look at what is happening these days every other guy is either selling treasury shares (JPASSOCIAT & SUZLON are the latest examples) or doing block deals because they themselves know that their stocks are overrated as of now ... This is nothing but insider trading!!! ... Just another point to show that what we have in the markets today is not "smart money"

SBIN needs one more down day to confirm the end of the updraft. It has defied gravity and logic too.

This time u r lucky Praveen. Look at DOW. U can have better chances to come out of ur shorts today.

And come on  -  u too have started calling SCRIPT instead of SCRIP ?   I have weird thoughts about this stk mkt - why u?

Ref. Insider's trading 

Anyone can trace their mark of activities in daily & intraday chart & data. For JPASSOCIAT it was evident on 15/16-09-2009 trading session itself. And look at the tick (which is rather - trick chart) chart of 17-09-2009 trading session - how they did jack it up several times to sell at higher rate later. ( I can't forget - i was short on JPASSOCIAT on 17-09-2009. I could manage to come out with some of it - despite those jack-ups). A bit of it is evident in BHARTIARTEL too.

For SUZLON - they are doing it right from April/MAy -09 onwards.

Infact, they know their value of scripts better than several learned & reputed analyst. They know better than us about - What Is Next.

Nifty majors - RELIANCE/JPASSOCIATE/SUZLON came to light at this height of mkt. Who could be NEXT? Guess.

This and several other negatives are pending to be discounted. Only - let the down move start.

And yes u r right  - most of the smart money are out of this mkt.

Cheers & good luck.

NIFTY closes poised at 5000! what drama ... lololol

Whatta day! ... My NIFTY shorts actually made me profits! Then all the CALL writers were made happy too ... It was a please all closure to September series! ... Look at the volatility of SBIN! .... just a fabulous day .... It was like last ball mein sixer, snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in the last 2 days!... I was all ready to lose my NIFTY lots just 2 days ago and i got my 60 point fall for the day! This is precisely why we trade! for the sheer thrill of the last minute win

Whats with you guys and your RELIANCE puts? hope you made it good

POWERGRID ... I should have held on to that yesterday ... was just so risk averse since monday, the moment i gotta chance I offloaded

Cheers all

My puts at 2010 had no way out. It never dipped so low to make it green. And closing it would have meant more money for the brokerage. Yk's puts were further down and expired earlier. My estimates on reliance wetnt wrong for puts. Had I shorted it , I would be happier. Today several Nifty scrips had the seesaw- ONGC, BHEL to name just two. Now I am long IDEA 80 call.