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To begin with, NIFTY analysis ...

There is talk of another "BUBBLE" in the making after the 52 week high close on NIFTY, but we are forgetting one intrinsic charecter of a BUBBLE; we will never know if we are in a bubble until we are out of it. So, NIFTY is moving higher up despite many factors like overpriced stocks, bad monsoons, the China correction and global recessionary signs still being very much part of the reality. Yet, there are many +ve signs and one can easily make out the fact that invester sentiment is now more +ve than it ever was in the last 18 months or so. Here they are;

In US sales of home increased by 9.6% in JULY, US consumer confidence rose more than expected in August to 54.1 after two consecutive months of declines.

Most European markets reached their 10 month highs, Asian markets were choppy mainly because of China factor.

@Home

Last week FII's were net buyers in the market to the tune of 2336.18 crores... PCR (Put/call ratio) is showing bullish trends in the market.

At the start of the week, the Indian federal bond yield rose sharply to 7.34%, which is highest since November 20.

Purely on Technical Analysis

NIFTY formed a double bottom pattern to just about rise above the resistance level and close intrestingly @ 4732 levels...MACD is crossing its signal line from below and RSI is @ 60 with OBV showing convergence. DX also showed a double bottom pattern last week & is now rising to form new peak... Bollinger bands (BB) showing price range between the upper band & midline and would give a confirmation breakout signal once the prices cross the upperband. Stochastics has formed a new peak in the overbrought area. There is a +ve Aroon buy signal in NIFTY chart

Now for 4 stock picks for the week on NIFTY

PNB>>> FA : P/E ratios low, Increasing EPS growth %, Cheap when compared 2 sales, reasonable 4 PEG ... TA : BB= narrow, meaning there is chance of a price breakout, prices have just about crossed the midline.. Bearish MACD but may cross signal line from below to generate buy signal.

ACC >>> FA: PE ratios on the lower side= 7-8, cheap compared 2 sales, High EPS growth, Reasonable 4 PEG .... TA : Engulfing bullish line... BB= prices rising to hit the midline & may cross it to confirm buy signal, MACD is bearish but may cross the signal line from below since it is rising. stochastics rising

STER >>> 3 white candles, BB= have crossed the upper band, bullish MACD, rising RSI, rising William %R

RCOM >>> FA : High P/E ratios = 37-38, declining sales growth, costly 4 PEG... TA : overbrought stochastics falling down, BB= prices about to cross the midline to fall. declining Open interest

Now for a couple of interesting MIDCAPS

AUROPHARMA>>> RSI in overbrought area (72) with sucessive lower peaks with a sell off. .. no volume divergence.. falling MACD about to cross below the signal line

JPASSOCIAT>>> FA : High EPS, High sales growth, Reasonable for PEG, reasonable PE ratios of about 15-16...TA : BB: price is close 2 upper band...MACD has just crossed above the signal line and is rising from the oversold area...overbrought stochastics but pierced the previous peak and again rising, big white candle, engulfing bullish line, previous day had a dragon fly doji. Target 257.71

I will post more with time.

P.S: dont base ur buy or sell signal on my theories, just take it forward from here

Nice calls. I see agreeable charts on with PNB and JPASSOC. PNB for me might dip to 650-655 before bouncing back.

Hey asahai ... good that we our ideas converge ... lets check out PNB n JPASSOCIAT more closely this week

asahai, i want ur opinion on 2 more scrips that are buzzing on my charts... check them out for me

APPOLOHOSP 

&

CIPLA

I have a sectoral theory that healthcare should do better this week

waiting for ur opinion

Apollo Hosp has been in a range. From my point of view it might touch 520 tomorrow. It appears more of sidewaays counter to me. CIPLA should move up but again I see CIPLA oscillating around 290 this week. This is my view. I consider you a senior here. Also as a user of MS Pro you are way ahead of me. I am still planning to go pro. 

Lets watch these scrips closely. Happy Trading.

Why no input on SBIN? Have you ditched it?

CIPLA looks set for some nice intraday upshoots tomorrow(290) while Apollo looks set to drop tomorrow(520).

I read your post and Yks also but am clueless about Nifty. How have the global cues line up. I saw DJI closed lower on Friday. Anything else of significance?

Waiting for SGX Nifty for guidance in the morning.

CIPLA - tomorrow must close above it's CMP that too with white candle( which looks probable) to attract people. However my chart say that for ST it's backbone is broken and safe to expect around  290 mark as of today.

APPOLOHOSP - my data say - something is coocking up in this counter (for up move). RSI is badly oversold. It must close above 537 mark as of tomorrow to be in contention.

However as far as i know it's a news driven counter from ADAG.

JP - if Nifty moves - no doubt about it.

STER - i'm a bit worried for tomorrow. It can provide good shorting opportunity tomorrow if global cues are not strong.

PNB - Let Banknifty move first.

AUROPHARMA - u have cought it perfectly.

SBIN - not looking good for tomorrow. All bank shares are standing at upper band. Perhaps wating for some trigger. let bank nifty break this band and then get in. However RSI is charged. Once it starts to move up - won't stop easily.(readings as of today).

( These all my views are purly technical. )

Yk,

RSI on Apollo is badly oversold?

I have reservations on shorting STER tomorrow. Even though the stoch is perched at 85 I see an uptick here.

Oh! asahaiji

It depends chart setup to chart setup.

You , me and million of us see the same chart but from different perspective.

For tomorrow - fingers crossed. Will see as it come by.

Nifty max this week around 4850.

If tries to kiss  4900 , i will gladly buy 4600PE/4500PE this week.

For tomorrow i've lined up

TATACOMM,TECHM,TATAMOTOR,TANLA,ELECTCAST,PATNI -  for longs

and BAJAJHIND, LT for shorts.

But positions according to movement of Nifty.

For tomorrow not very positive - a strong reason (trigger) is required for nifty to go ahead substantially.

For Dow, Job data loomign large,

However on Tuesday when they releases ISM manufacturing number - next trend will be decided with trigger.

So, for me just wait and work out Nifty intraday.

Wonderful!!! You guys are always on track ... asahai am as much a student as u are @ senior et al .... both of u guys r spot on about CIPLA... a couple of my links in brokerage firms gave me a tip on CIPLA (always take it with a pinch of salt) but am not sure of it

YK, exactly my thoughts on APOLLO ... so lets keep a close watch on those counters & the moment somebody spots something, we'll blow the whistle    ... banks may be better poised this week (just a feeling)

Herez another NIFTY buy signal

SIEMENS >>> 3 white soldiers.. BB=crossing upper band (may be a breakout)... bullish MACD...rising RSI.. overbrought stochastics, but still rising & possible 2nd peak formation... resistance @ 518 & 557

here are a few more midcaps before i call it a day;

BUY

LUMAXIND >>> long white candle breaking resistance, 3 white candles...BB= prices broke out of the upper band, bullish MACD crossover, rising RSI, rising stochastics, moving average 3way crossover gives confirmed buy signal.

ZEENEWS>>> big white candle, 3 white soldiers, BB: closed above the upperband by 19%... rising stochastics on the way to create new peak. rising RSI very close to 70 .. very bullish MACD crossover..OBV convergence..

SELL

ORCHIDCHEM>>> Overbrought RSI, overbrought MACD, overbrought STOCHASTICS.

MASTEK >>> 3 black candles, long upper shadow...BB=price crossover from upper band downwards by 20%...falling RSI crossover from the

overbrought area. falling stochastics

YK

herez my take on ur picks (for whatever its worth)

TATAMOTORS  is showing bullish harami with bullish MACD  crossover .... fundamentally, it is still quite buyable because of reasonable PE ratios (12-13) & high EPS growth %

TATACOMM am not sure technically... fundamentally also methinks it is overbrought (but having said that, their partnership with NTT DOCOMO makes it very very attractive)

PATNI, technically shows a falling MACD  line.... but fundamentally it still has potential @ PE ratios of 9-10 and high EPS growth%

Dear YK...

Are u sure about TANLA? A stochastic & BB sell signal is visible on the chart

TECHM candlestick chart again shows BEARISH  engulfing pattern & a spinning top

Tanla seems slipping to me too.

China is on a free fall so most Asian markets are down ...

Something is brewing in China & we will be none the wiser about it any time soon.

Tread NIFTY cautiously, it has all the makings of a BLACK MONDAY (52week highs, unwarranted exuberance, overvalued market, china falling like nine-pins & what have you?)

A point on TATAMOTORS>>> Q1'10 results = income rose by 16% (yoy) & net profit rose to 573 crores (3 fold increase!)

But will market discount all of that?

 all my previous BUY calls need to be taken cautiously as markets might open in red

NIFTY support level @ 4650-4640 ... Resistance @ 4750

Wait n watch

Mistake correction .... The Q1'10 results above are for TATAPOWER & not TATAMOTORS as printed in the above post

Typing error is regretted

Yk,

You have been quite on target about Nifty. Everything else has been swept away.

Did one mistake Sold UNITECH today from my holdings @104 (bought recently at 83).

Only know about it that punters were betting hight on it.

One short swing of nifty encashed for 37 pts. Looking for another swing.

Calls given have firied. Booked profit morning itself. Techm is still open. Bajaj closed with 2pts loss. Tatacomm after booking have re-entered. 

Looking to re-enter Nifty.

DO NOT REMAIN SHORT. SHORT TGT already achieved.

Next Resistance of Nifty 4680 . watch carefully with volume.